Analyze the forex market

30 January 2018

GBPUSD the weakest today. What does that do to the chart?

Pound GBPUSD
More bearish but lots of levels ahead.
The GBPUSD story in 2018 has seen a huge run to the upside from the January 11 low of 1.34439. The high reached last week peaked at 1.4344.  That's roughly 900 pips to the upside.  
The price decline from the high has not been all that smooth. On Friday, the price rebounded off the Thursday low - moving up about 200 pips in the process (the fal on Thursday was 261 pips)l. 


The move back lower off Friday's high, has seen the price move back below the 100 hour MA (blue line at 1.41506) and a trend line coming up from the Jan 11 low.   That trend line is right around the 100 hour MA now.  
The low reached 1.40558 today. A trend line from the January 17th low cuts across at 1.4045 currently (and rising). The 200 hour MA (green line) comes in at 1.4016 (and rising).  Those are the next targets.  After a run higher, there are going to be a lot of levels below that define the corrections steps lower. They could also slow the fall. The price has also not yet reached the 38.2% of the 900 pip run higher. That comes in at 1.40053.
Drilling to the 5-minute chart, the price today did break below a lower trend line (follow green circles in the chart below), but failed. Shorts will want to see the 1.40948-1.41068 to limit the corrective move now.  That is the 38.2-50% of the move down today) and also has the 100 bar MA and trend line in the area currently.  Staying below will keep the sellers happy given the recent trend lower.  
SUMMARY:  The price action is lower in the pair, but there are some dip buying/profit taking going on on the failed break on the 5-minute.   It does not kill the corrective move but brings some apprehension.  If the 1.4100 area stalls a rally, the price can rotate back down toward other targets on the hourly chart. Move above 1.41068 and the sellers may feel a little more uncertain from the downward stall. 


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