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Last week, the U.S. dollar crumbled once again and suffered losses against almost all of the major currencies around the world. It started as a correction following the previous week’s rebound but turned into a rout after the announcement of the CPI data for January. The inflation rate was above forecasts but was unchanged from the reading for the prior month. The wage growth unexpectedly jumped to a nine-year high and stoked fears that the Fed would go for a more aggressive rate hike cycle. However, the worries evaporated when the headline price growth data underwhelmed.
The minutes FOMC meeting in January is the only significant economic news that has the potential to change the trend in the upcoming week. Only in the event of the committee making profoundly more hawkish remarks, the U.S. dollar will see some action. On the other hand, a cautious stance could lead to more losses. Here is an outlook on key release for the next week:
#1: Bank of England Governor Mark Carney Speaks (02/19/2018 Monday 18:45 GMT)Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England is scheduled to speak at Regent’s University in London on the subject of leadership and values. As audience questions are expected, the market may see some volatility.#2: Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (02/20/2018 Tuesday 00:30 GMT)In the meeting early this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at the record low level of 1.5 percent as was widely expected. Two weeks after the announcement of the cash rate, the Reserve Bank of Australia is set to release the minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting. Traders look forward to the release of the minutes it contains a detailed account of the most recent meeting of the Board and in-depth insight into the economic conditions that impacted their decision on setting interest rates. Some amount of market volatility can be expected.#3: U.K. Average Earnings Index (02/21/2018 Wednesday 09:30 GMT)Total earnings of workers in the U.K., including bonuses, increased 2.5 percent to GBP511 per week during the three months to November 2017, at the same annual rate as in the prior period. This was in line with analysts’ expectation. The earnings growth, excluding bonuses, was 2.4 percent. This is the largest increase since December 2016 For the prior period, the earnings growth excluding bonuses was 2.3 percent. The reading came in a little above the market consensus for a gain of 2.3 percent. However, the earnings including bonuses fell 0.2 percent in real terms for the eighth consecutive month. Excluding bonuses, the earnings of workers declined 0.5 percent in real terms for the ninth consecutive in a row. The pay growth remained below inflation.#4: U.K. Inflation Report Hearings (02/21/2018 Wednesday 14:15 GMT)The Governor of the Bank of England and Monetary Policy Committee members testify before the Treasury Committee on of the Parliament on a quarterly basis on inflation and the country’s economic outlook. The hearings last for a few hours and often create volatility in the market because of the direct comments on the currency markets. Traders look forward to the release of the hearing report because members of the monetary policy committee vote for setting the key interest rates. Moreover, the members often provide subtle clues on future monetary policy decisions.#5: FOMC Meeting Minutes (02/21/2018 Wednesday 19:00 GMT)After raising the interest rates in December 2017, the Fed decided to keep its target federal funds rate range unchanged at 1.25 to 1.50 percent during the meeting in January. This was in line with analysts’ expectations. Three weeks after the announcement of the federal funds rate, the Fed releases the minutes of the most recent interest rate meeting to provide a detailed account of the decision process. It also provides in-depth insight into the financial and economic conditions that impacted their decision.#6: U.K. Second GDP Estimate (02/22/2018 Thursday 09:30 GMT)The preliminary estimate showed that the British economy expanded by 0.5 percent in the December quarter of last year, beating analysts’ expectation for a growth of 0.4 percent. The growth was driven by the services and manufacturing sectors. The construction sector contracted for the third consecutive quarter. The second estimate is expected to confirm the 0.5 percent reported in the preliminary estimate.#7: Canada Retail Sales/Core Retail Sales (02/22/2018 Thursday 13:30 GMT)In Canada, retail sales rose by 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis in November last year, easing from the upwardly revised increase of 1.6 percent for October. The reading for November, however, came in below analysts’ expectation for an increase of 0.8 percent. Core retail sales, on the other hand, increased 1.6 percent on a month-on-month basis.#8: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (02/22/2018 Thursday 16:00 GMT)In the U.S., crude oil stocks rose by 1.841 million barrels during the week that ended on February 9, following an increase of 1.895 million barrels in the prior period. The reading for the week, however, came in below analysts’ expectation for an increase of 2.825 million barrels. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks increased 3.599 million barrels, following the 3.414 million barrels rise for the prior week. The increase in gasoline stocks beat the analysts’ estimate for a gain of 1.229 million barrels.#9: New Zealand Retail Sales (02/22/2018 Thursday 16:45 GMT)In New Zealand, retail sales rose by 0.2 percent in the September quarter of last year after the reading for the prior quarter was revised downward to an increase of 1.8 percent. The retail sales figure for the September quarter came in below analysts’ expectation of 0.4 percent increase. This was the slowest increase in retail sales since June 2015 and was attributed to contraction in accommodation and food and beverage services sectors. On a year-on-year basis, retail sales rose by 4.1 percent in the third quarter after recording an expansion of 5.4 percent in the prior quarter. Retail sales in New Zealand are expected to grow by 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.#10: Canada CPI (02/23/2018 Friday 13:30 GMT)
In Canada, the consumer prices dropped 0.40 percent in the month of December after registering a moderate increase of 0.3 in the previous month.
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